While the various Chambers of Commerce have been predicting all manner of high levels in spending, Access Economics’ latest retail forecasts report puts forward a more realistic set of numbers. The researcher says this season’s shopping spree will not be much bigger than 1 percent over last year, but 2010 is shaping up to be very solid. Access insists that as individual wealth (as measured by the share market and house prices) continues to grow, so confidence will lead to a continued appetite to consume and borrow.

The latest Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations survey has revealed that nearly half of all businesses expect an increase in their sales in the upcoming March quarter, with only 16 percent expecting a fall. This is the best result for 6 years.

Just as rising house prices reflect wide-spread buyer confidence, so the resurgence in new car sales is pointing to the top end of the market. Not only are the total sales up 20 percent over the previous year’s numbers, but big four wheel drives are leading the charge and small runabouts are declining. Interestingly, the Toyota HiLux has emerged as the best individual seller as 4WD SUV sales increased by a staggering 44 percent.