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Australian executives are expecting a strong finish to the financial year and are confident of a robust business performance for the remainder of 2010. The Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey of business expectations for the June 2010 quarter found almost one third of respondents expected their profit levels to increase in the quarter. Dun & Bradstreet’s chief executive Christine Christian says improved expectations across all indices indicate that executives believe that the 2010 financial year will be far more promising than the prior year.

As economies across the globe continue to pick-up, so the recovery in the price of oil gains pace. Now at well over $US80 a barrel, it is running at a 17 month high and industry observers say the rate of increase will surely continue. This is bad news for the Australian economy as continued lifts in oil prices quickly impact consumer prices. And it was only a couple of years ago the lift in the CPI – mainly by oil price increases – was cited by the RBA as the main reason for rises in the basic cash rate.

After over 40 years of being Australia’s biggest customer, Japan has slipped to the number two position after China. A surge in the past few months in the huge volume of iron ore and coal pushed the total value of sales to China to be seven billion dollars ahead of the annual total of exports to Japan. According to the Bureau of Statistics, our exports to China now run at nearly $80 billion annually and continue to grow rapidly.

A leading international economist has warned Australia against relying too much on China. The CEO of Vanguard Investments (which manages over $1.4 trillion in assets around the world) says the boom in China is running close to out of control and raw material supplier nations such as Australia should not gear up too heavily as that country is likely to have a market correction soon.

Far too many economists now insist that the property boom is now the biggest topic in our economy, with even the RBA taking extraordinary steps to issue warnings. While the core problem is undeniably the low supply of properties allowing the rule of supply and demand to push up prices, there are a number of additional factors at work. It is now widely agreed that these include the sudden surge in the amount of suburban buyers looking to acquire extra properties on negative gearing and the rush of overseas buyers into the market. And it is the latter with their access to low rate Asian loans which is now being cited as a huge factor that demands government action. It was only last year that the law was changed to allow overseas buyers to acquire property as one of the measures to fight the Global Financial Crisis.

The RBA insists house buyers are now getting more options due to alternative funding ‘ such as securitisations ‘ that are starting to emerge for smaller banks and non-bank lenders. This, the RBA says, could counter the previous trend of the main banks to lift rates by more than the official increase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again increased the cash rate by 0.25% today. It is expected that further rates increases will occur throughout the course of the year with a cash rate of 5% by year end and 5.5% by the middle of next year. This of course will depend on the data received by the RBA. The RBA believe that the growth outlook outweighs any negatives that have been seen in the marketplace.

The RBA’s statement today spends most of the time listing the positives for the domestic growth outlook. The world and Australian GDP outcomes are expected to be close to trend for 2010. Asia’s growth is expected to remain strong because their financial sectors are not impaired. In comparison, the advanced economies which have excess capacity in labour and goods markets, along with troubled financial sectors, will have weaker activity levels for some time.

The volatility in global financial markets induced by the problems in Greece has been downplayed by the RBA in recent statements. In today’s statement there is an observation that “concerns regarding some sovereigns appear to have been contained at this stage”. So, even if there are further problems within the EU regarding debt issues, it is unlikely to hold back the RBA from its tightening path. From the RBA’s perspective, the Greek issue was providing volatility but was and still is unlikely to offset the strong growth underway in Asia.

The statement lists the domestic issues which, in our view, will produce the self sustaining recovery that justifies the move to “normal” interest rate structures. The boost to the terms of trade from higher iron ore and coal prices will lift incomes and business investment across the economy over the next year. New housing construction will add to this. The jobs market is strengthening from a lower than expected unemployment rate peak.